| Publication type: | Article in scientific journal |
| Type of review: | Peer review (publication) |
| Title: | Designing prediction markets for international negotiations : lessons learnt from the climate summit in Copenhagen |
| Authors: | Betz, Regina Cludius, Johanna Twomey, Paul |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.04.007 |
| Published in: | Global Environmental Change |
| Volume(Issue): | 27 |
| Page(s): | 106 |
| Pages to: | 119 |
| Issue Date: | 2014 |
| Publisher / Ed. Institution: | Elsevier |
| ISSN: | 0959-3780 1872-9495 |
| Language: | English |
| Subjects: | Prediction markets; Information markets; United Nations Framwork convention on climate change; Copenhagen climate summit |
| Subject (DDC): | 003: Systems 363: Environmental and security problems |
| Abstract: | This paper presents results from a field experiment of running a prediction market for international climate negotiations. We draw upon our experience of running the Copenhagen Prediction Market during the Copenhagen Climate Summit in December 2009. The Copenhagen Prediction Market consisted of 17 different markets, where participants could trade in shares predicting, amongst others, reduction targets for various countries, the long-term stabilisation goal or the level of funding from developed countries to developing nations for mitigation and adaptation actions. We show that this novel application of prediction markets to climate negotiations is distinct from more traditional applications and, in many ways, more challenging. We discuss our experiences in designing and setting up the market and interpreting its results. In particular, it is crucial to be able to define the outcome of a climate conference in the face of often ambiguous final communications in order to make the prediction market robust and to find benchmarks to compare prediction market performance against. |
| URI: | https://digitalcollection.zhaw.ch/handle/11475/12763 |
| Fulltext version: | Published version |
| License (according to publishing contract): | Licence according to publishing contract |
| Departement: | School of Management and Law |
| Organisational Unit: | Center for Energy and Environment (CEE) |
| Appears in collections: | Publikationen School of Management and Law |
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Betz, R., Cludius, J., & Twomey, P. (2014). Designing prediction markets for international negotiations : lessons learnt from the climate summit in Copenhagen. Global Environmental Change, 27, 106–119. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.04.007
Betz, R., Cludius, J. and Twomey, P. (2014) ‘Designing prediction markets for international negotiations : lessons learnt from the climate summit in Copenhagen’, Global Environmental Change, 27, pp. 106–119. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.04.007.
R. Betz, J. Cludius, and P. Twomey, “Designing prediction markets for international negotiations : lessons learnt from the climate summit in Copenhagen,” Global Environmental Change, vol. 27, pp. 106–119, 2014, doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.04.007.
BETZ, Regina, Johanna CLUDIUS und Paul TWOMEY, 2014. Designing prediction markets for international negotiations : lessons learnt from the climate summit in Copenhagen. Global Environmental Change. 2014. Bd. 27, S. 106–119. DOI 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.04.007
Betz, Regina, Johanna Cludius, and Paul Twomey. 2014. “Designing Prediction Markets for International Negotiations : Lessons Learnt from the Climate Summit in Copenhagen.” Global Environmental Change 27: 106–19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.04.007.
Betz, Regina, et al. “Designing Prediction Markets for International Negotiations : Lessons Learnt from the Climate Summit in Copenhagen.” Global Environmental Change, vol. 27, 2014, pp. 106–19, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.04.007.
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