Directional trends in species composition over time can lead to a widespread overemphasis of year‐to‐year asynchrony

Valencia, Enrique; de Bello, Francesco; Lepš, Jan; Galland, Thomas; E‐Vojtkó, Anna; Conti, Luisa; Danihelka, Jiří; Dengler, Jürgen; Eldridge, David J.; Estiarte, Marc; García‐González, Ricardo; Garnier, Eric; Gómez, Daniel; Harrison, Susan; Herben, Tomas; Ibáñez, Ricardo; Jentsch, Anke; Juergens, Norbert; Kertész, Miklós; Klumpp, Katja; Louault, Frédérique; Marrs, Rob H.; Ónodi, Gábor; Pakeman, Robin J.; Pärtel, Meelis; Peco, Begoña; Peñuelas, Josep; Rueda, Marta; Schmidt, Wolfgang; Schmiedel, Ute; Schuetz, Martin; Skalova, Hana; Šmilauer, Petr; Šmilauerová, Marie; Smit, Christian; Song, Ming‐Hua; Stock, Martin; Val, James; Vandvik, Vigdis; Wesche, Karsten; Woodcock, Ben A.; Young, Truman P.; Yu, Fei‐Hai; Zobel, Martin; Götzenberger, Lars

doi:10.1111/jvs.12916

Publication type:	Article in scientific journal
Type of review:	Peer review (publication)
Title:	Directional trends in species composition over time can lead to a widespread overemphasis of year‐to‐year asynchrony
Authors:	Valencia, Enrique de Bello, Francesco Lepš, Jan Galland, Thomas E‐Vojtkó, Anna Conti, Luisa Danihelka, Jiří Dengler, Jürgen Eldridge, David J. Estiarte, Marc García‐González, Ricardo Garnier, Eric Gómez, Daniel Harrison, Susan Herben, Tomas Ibáñez, Ricardo Jentsch, Anke Juergens, Norbert Kertész, Miklós Klumpp, Katja Louault, Frédérique Marrs, Rob H. Ónodi, Gábor Pakeman, Robin J. Pärtel, Meelis Peco, Begoña Peñuelas, Josep Rueda, Marta Schmidt, Wolfgang Schmiedel, Ute Schuetz, Martin Skalova, Hana Šmilauer, Petr Šmilauerová, Marie Smit, Christian Song, Ming‐Hua Stock, Martin Val, James Vandvik, Vigdis Wesche, Karsten Woodcock, Ben A. Young, Truman P. Yu, Fei‐Hai Zobel, Martin Götzenberger, Lars
et. al:	No
DOI:	10.1111/jvs.12916
Published in:	Journal of Vegetation Science
Volume(Issue):	31
Issue:	5
Page(s):	792
Pages to:	802
Issue Date:	Jul-2020
Publisher / Ed. Institution:	Wiley
ISSN:	1100-9233 1654-1103
Language:	English
Subjects:	Asynchrony; Biodiversity; Stability; Synchrony; Temporal dynamics; Year‐to‐year fluctuation
Subject (DDC):	577: Ecology
Abstract:	Questions: Compensatory dynamics are described as one of the main mechanisms that increase community stability, e.g., where decreases of some species on a year-to-year basis are offset by an increase in others. Deviations from perfect synchrony between species (asynchrony) have therefore been advocated as an important mechanism underlying biodiversity effects on stability. However, it is unclear to what extent existing measures of synchrony actually capture the signal of year-to-year species fluctuations in the presence of long-term directional trends in both species abundance and composition (species directional trends hereafter). Such directional trends may lead to a misinterpretation of indices commonly used to reflect year-to-year synchrony. Methods: An approach based on three-term local quadrat variance (T3) which assesses population variability in a three-year moving window, was used to overcome species directional trend effects. This “detrending” approach was applied to common indices of synchrony across a worldwide collection of 77 temporal plant community datasets comprising almost 7,800 individual plots sampled for at least six years. Plots included were either maintained under constant “control” conditions over time or were subjected to different management or disturbance treatments. Results: Accounting for directional trends increased the detection of year-to-year synchronous patterns in all synchrony indices considered. Specifically, synchrony values increased significantly in ~40% of the datasets with the T3 detrending approach while in ~10% synchrony decreased. For the 38 studies with both control and manipulated conditions, the increase in synchrony values was stronger for longer time series, particularly following experimental manipulation. Conclusions: Species’ long-term directional trends can affect synchrony and stability measures potentially masking the ecological mechanism causing year-to-year fluctuations. As such, previous studies on community stability might have overemphasised the role of compensatory dynamics in real-world ecosystems, and particularly in manipulative conditions, when not considering the possible overriding effects of long-term directional trends.
URI:	https://research.rug.nl/en/publications/directional-trends-in-species-composition-over-time-can-lead-to-a https://digitalcollection.zhaw.ch/handle/11475/20529
Fulltext version:	Published version
License (according to publishing contract):	Licence according to publishing contract
Departement:	Life Sciences and Facility Management
Organisational Unit:	Institute of Natural Resource Sciences (IUNR)
Appears in collections:	Publikationen Life Sciences und Facility Management

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Valencia, E., de Bello, F., Lepš, J., Galland, T., E‐Vojtkó, A., Conti, L., Danihelka, J., Dengler, J., Eldridge, D. J., Estiarte, M., García‐González, R., Garnier, E., Gómez, D., Harrison, S., Herben, T., Ibáñez, R., Jentsch, A., Juergens, N., Kertész, M., et al. (2020). Directional trends in species composition over time can lead to a widespread overemphasis of year‐to‐year asynchrony. Journal of Vegetation Science, 31(5), 792–802. https://doi.org/10.1111/jvs.12916

Valencia, E. et al. (2020) ‘Directional trends in species composition over time can lead to a widespread overemphasis of year‐to‐year asynchrony’, Journal of Vegetation Science, 31(5), pp. 792–802. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1111/jvs.12916.

E. Valencia et al., “Directional trends in species composition over time can lead to a widespread overemphasis of year‐to‐year asynchrony,” Journal of Vegetation Science, vol. 31, no. 5, pp. 792–802, Jul. 2020, doi: 10.1111/jvs.12916.

VALENCIA, Enrique, Francesco DE BELLO, Jan LEPŠ, Thomas GALLAND, Anna E‐VOJTKÓ, Luisa CONTI, Jiří DANIHELKA, Jürgen DENGLER, David J. ELDRIDGE, Marc ESTIARTE, Ricardo GARCÍA‐GONZÁLEZ, Eric GARNIER, Daniel GÓMEZ, Susan HARRISON, Tomas HERBEN, Ricardo IBÁÑEZ, Anke JENTSCH, Norbert JUERGENS, Miklós KERTÉSZ, Katja KLUMPP, Frédérique LOUAULT, Rob H. MARRS, Gábor ÓNODI, Robin J. PAKEMAN, Meelis PÄRTEL, Begoña PECO, Josep PEÑUELAS, Marta RUEDA, Wolfgang SCHMIDT, Ute SCHMIEDEL, Martin SCHUETZ, Hana SKALOVA, Petr ŠMILAUER, Marie ŠMILAUEROVÁ, Christian SMIT, Ming‐Hua SONG, Martin STOCK, James VAL, Vigdis VANDVIK, Karsten WESCHE, Ben A. WOODCOCK, Truman P. YOUNG, Fei‐Hai YU, Martin ZOBEL und Lars GÖTZENBERGER, 2020. Directional trends in species composition over time can lead to a widespread overemphasis of year‐to‐year asynchrony. Journal of Vegetation Science [online]. Juli 2020. Bd. 31, Nr. 5, S. 792–802. DOI 10.1111/jvs.12916. Verfügbar unter: https://research.rug.nl/en/publications/directional-trends-in-species-composition-over-time-can-lead-to-a

Valencia, Enrique, Francesco de Bello, Jan Lepš, Thomas Galland, Anna E‐Vojtkó, Luisa Conti, Jiří Danihelka, et al. 2020. “Directional Trends in Species Composition over Time Can Lead to a Widespread Overemphasis of Year‐to‐Year Asynchrony.” Journal of Vegetation Science 31 (5): 792–802. https://doi.org/10.1111/jvs.12916.

Valencia, Enrique, et al. “Directional Trends in Species Composition over Time Can Lead to a Widespread Overemphasis of Year‐to‐Year Asynchrony.” Journal of Vegetation Science, vol. 31, no. 5, July 2020, pp. 792–802, https://doi.org/10.1111/jvs.12916.