Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://doi.org/10.21256/zhaw-24055
Publication type: Article in scientific journal
Type of review: Peer review (publication)
Title: Expected global suitability of coffee, cashew and avocado due to climate change
Authors: Grüter, Roman
Trachsel, Tim
Laube, Patrick
Jaisli, Isabel
et. al: No
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0261976
10.21256/zhaw-24055
Published in: PLOS ONE
Volume(Issue): 17
Issue: 1
Page(s): e0261976
Issue Date: Jan-2022
Publisher / Ed. Institution: Public Library of Science
ISSN: 1932-6203
Language: English
Subjects: Coffee arabica; Cashew; Avocado; Soil; Climate change; Global; Current suitability; Future suitability; Land evaluation; Shift in growing regions
Subject (DDC): 630: Agriculture
Abstract: Coffee, cashew and avocado are of high socio-economic importance in many tropical smallholder farming systems around the globe. As plantation crops with a long lifespan, their cultivation requires long-term planning. The evaluation of climate change impacts on their biophysical suitability is therefore essential for developing adaptation measures and selecting appropriate varieties or crops. In this study, we modelled the current and future suitability of coffee arabica, cashew and avocado on a global scale based on climatic and soil requirements of the three crops. We used climate outputs of 14 global circulation models based on three emission scenarios to model the future (2050) climate change impacts on the crops both globally and in the main producing countries. For all three crops, climatic factors, mainly long dry seasons, mean temperatures (high and low), low minimum temperatures and annual precipitation (high and low), were more restrictive for the global extent of suitable growing regions than land and soil parameters, which were primarily low soil pH, unfavourable soil texture and steep slopes. We found shifts in suitable growing regions due to climate change with both regions of future expansion and contraction for all crops investigated. Coffee proved to be most vulnerable, with negative climate impacts dominating in all main producing regions. For both cashew and avocado, areas suitable for cultivation are expected to expand globally while in most main producing countries, the areas of highest suitability may decrease. The study reveals that climate change adaptation will be necessary in most major producing regions of all three crops. At high latitudes and high altitudes, however, they may all profit from increasing minimum temperatures. The study presents the first global assessment of climate change impacts on cashew and avocado suitability.
URI: https://digitalcollection.zhaw.ch/handle/11475/24055
Fulltext version: Published version
License (according to publishing contract): CC BY 4.0: Attribution 4.0 International
Departement: Life Sciences and Facility Management
Organisational Unit: Institute of Natural Resource Sciences (IUNR)
Published as part of the ZHAW project: CONSUS
Appears in collections:Publikationen Life Sciences und Facility Management

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