The future's back : first generic models of self-defeating road traffic forecasting

Ott, Thomas; Füchslin, Rudolf Marcel

Publication type:	Conference other
Type of review:	Not specified
Title:	The future's back : first generic models of self-defeating road traffic forecasting
Authors:	Ott, Thomas Füchslin, Rudolf Marcel
Conference details:	NDES 2017, 25th Nonlinear Dynamics of Electronic Systems Conference, Zernez, 5-7 June 2017
Issue Date:	5-Jun-2017
Language:	English
Subjects:	Modeling; Traffic
Subject (DDC):	303: Social processes 380: Transportation
Abstract:	Traffic forecasts are critical for effective road traffic management. Driven by growing needs and the availability of more and new data and technology, traffic forecasting methods have become a vivid research field in the last couple of years (e.g. [1,2]). However, almost no attention has been paid so far to the effect of forecasting information on the traffic situation. From the perspective of traffic management, the desired effect often corresponds to a self-defeating prophecy; in the case of a predicted congestion, the goal of forecasting-based traffic management is to prevent or mitigate the predicted situation. In practice, the dynamics of this nonlinear feedback effect is hardly comprehended in traffic management. In our contribution, we elucidate the issue using the example of the South-to-North transit route in Switzerland and we derive reduced generic models of self-defeating traffic forecasting. They may provide a first step toward improved decision-making for traffic management, taking into account the repercussions of traffic recommendation on the system under consideration.
URI:	https://digitalcollection.zhaw.ch/handle/11475/2696
Fulltext version:	Published version
License (according to publishing contract):	Licence according to publishing contract
Departement:	School of Engineering
Organisational Unit:	Institute of Applied Mathematics and Physics (IAMP) Institute of Computational Life Sciences (ICLS)
Appears in collections:	Publikationen School of Engineering

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Ott, T., & Füchslin, R. M. (2017, June 5). The future’s back : first generic models of self-defeating road traffic forecasting. NDES 2017, 25th Nonlinear Dynamics of Electronic Systems Conference, Zernez, 5-7 June 2017.

Ott, T. and Füchslin, R.M. (2017) ‘The future’s back : first generic models of self-defeating road traffic forecasting’, in NDES 2017, 25th Nonlinear Dynamics of Electronic Systems Conference, Zernez, 5-7 June 2017.

T. Ott and R. M. Füchslin, “The future’s back : first generic models of self-defeating road traffic forecasting,” in NDES 2017, 25th Nonlinear Dynamics of Electronic Systems Conference, Zernez, 5-7 June 2017, Jun. 2017.

OTT, Thomas und Rudolf Marcel FÜCHSLIN, 2017. The future’s back : first generic models of self-defeating road traffic forecasting. In: NDES 2017, 25th Nonlinear Dynamics of Electronic Systems Conference, Zernez, 5-7 June 2017. Conference presentation. 5 Juni 2017

Ott, Thomas, and Rudolf Marcel Füchslin. 2017. “The Future’s Back : First Generic Models of Self-Defeating Road Traffic Forecasting.” Conference presentation. In NDES 2017, 25th Nonlinear Dynamics of Electronic Systems Conference, Zernez, 5-7 June 2017.

Ott, Thomas, and Rudolf Marcel Füchslin. “The Future’s Back : First Generic Models of Self-Defeating Road Traffic Forecasting.” NDES 2017, 25th Nonlinear Dynamics of Electronic Systems Conference, Zernez, 5-7 June 2017, 2017.