Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://doi.org/10.21256/zhaw-1137
Publication type: | Working paper – expertise – study |
Title: | Understandig the Role of Scenarios in Swiss Energy Research |
Authors: | Braunreiter, Lukas Wemyss, Devon Kobe, Carmen Müller, Adrian W. Krause, Thilo Blumer, Yann |
DOI: | 10.21256/zhaw-1137 |
Extent: | 32 |
Issue Date: | Jul-2016 |
Series: | SML Working Paper |
Series volume: | 13 |
Publisher / Ed. Institution: | ZHAW Zürcher Hochschule für Angewandte Wissenschaften |
Publisher / Ed. Institution: | Winterthur |
Language: | English |
Subjects: | Scenarios, Energy systems, Energy policy, Modelling, Transition, Switzerland |
Subject (DDC): | 333: Economics of land and resources |
Abstract: | Energy scenarios link long-term policy goals to near-term decisions and may thus guide the transition to more sustainable energy systems. Yet, systematic empirical analyses of how energy scenarios are understood and used by relevant actors are rare. This working paper addresses the situation in Switzerland, where several competing public energy scenarios have been developed by different organisations in reaction to the government’s decision to phase out nuclear power. The analysis focuses on the energy research community, which has a double role in the dissemination of scenario-based insights: On the one hand, researchers develop energy scenarios which may in turn be used by decision-makers in policy and industry to create or assess action alternatives. On the other hand, many researchers are scenario users themselves. We conducted 13 structured in-depth interviews with energy researchers. The sample covers a wide scope of institutions and disciplinary backgrounds, including economics, engineering, geography, sociology, and law. We find that while most researchers do use energy scenarios, there are, essentially, two contrasting types of scenario use among them: One group of researchers, which we labelled divers, is interested in very specific data and assumptions that it wants to fully understand. A second group, which we labelled sailors, refers to the results of a scenario analysis in a more general manner. We identified different interpretations of scenario content between sailors and divers. These discrepancies are a result of the highly specialised modelling activities on which energy scenarios are based. Implicit knowledge that is generated during the process of developing energy sce-narios is inaccessible to most scenarios users. We therefore conclude the study with a discussion about the usefulness of participative stakeholder involvement and scenario documentation that is adjusted to the interests and competencies of its users. Because energy scenarios increasingly serve as a scientifically derived information basis for societal debates about energy transitions, their use needs to be studied more extensively. |
URI: | https://digitalcollection.zhaw.ch/handle/11475/1134 |
License (according to publishing contract): | Not specified |
Departement: | School of Management and Law |
Organisational Unit: | Institute of Innovation and Entrepreneurship (IIE) |
Appears in collections: | Energierecht & Energy Policy Analysis |
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File | Description | Size | Format | |
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2016_Jul_Braunreiter_Scenarios in Energy Research_2016 (PDF A).pdf | 648.69 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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Braunreiter, L., Wemyss, D., Kobe, C., Müller, A. W., Krause, T., & Blumer, Y. (2016). Understandig the Role of Scenarios in Swiss Energy Research. ZHAW Zürcher Hochschule für Angewandte Wissenschaften. https://doi.org/10.21256/zhaw-1137
Braunreiter, L. et al. (2016) Understandig the Role of Scenarios in Swiss Energy Research. Winterthur: ZHAW Zürcher Hochschule für Angewandte Wissenschaften. Available at: https://doi.org/10.21256/zhaw-1137.
L. Braunreiter, D. Wemyss, C. Kobe, A. W. Müller, T. Krause, and Y. Blumer, “Understandig the Role of Scenarios in Swiss Energy Research,” ZHAW Zürcher Hochschule für Angewandte Wissenschaften, Winterthur, Jul. 2016. doi: 10.21256/zhaw-1137.
BRAUNREITER, Lukas, Devon WEMYSS, Carmen KOBE, Adrian W. MÜLLER, Thilo KRAUSE und Yann BLUMER, 2016. Understandig the Role of Scenarios in Swiss Energy Research. Winterthur: ZHAW Zürcher Hochschule für Angewandte Wissenschaften
Braunreiter, Lukas, Devon Wemyss, Carmen Kobe, Adrian W. Müller, Thilo Krause, and Yann Blumer. 2016. “Understandig the Role of Scenarios in Swiss Energy Research.” Winterthur: ZHAW Zürcher Hochschule für Angewandte Wissenschaften. https://doi.org/10.21256/zhaw-1137.
Braunreiter, Lukas, et al. Understandig the Role of Scenarios in Swiss Energy Research. ZHAW Zürcher Hochschule für Angewandte Wissenschaften, July 2016, https://doi.org/10.21256/zhaw-1137.
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