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dc.contributor.authorBetz, Regina-
dc.contributor.authorCludius, Johanna-
dc.contributor.authorTwomey, Paul-
dc.date.accessioned2018-11-13T15:51:23Z-
dc.date.available2018-11-13T15:51:23Z-
dc.date.issued2014-
dc.identifier.issn0959-3780de_CH
dc.identifier.issn1872-9495de_CH
dc.identifier.urihttps://digitalcollection.zhaw.ch/handle/11475/12763-
dc.description.abstractThis paper presents results from a field experiment of running a prediction market for international climate negotiations. We draw upon our experience of running the Copenhagen Prediction Market during the Copenhagen Climate Summit in December 2009. The Copenhagen Prediction Market consisted of 17 different markets, where participants could trade in shares predicting, amongst others, reduction targets for various countries, the long-term stabilisation goal or the level of funding from developed countries to developing nations for mitigation and adaptation actions. We show that this novel application of prediction markets to climate negotiations is distinct from more traditional applications and, in many ways, more challenging. We discuss our experiences in designing and setting up the market and interpreting its results. In particular, it is crucial to be able to define the outcome of a climate conference in the face of often ambiguous final communications in order to make the prediction market robust and to find benchmarks to compare prediction market performance against.de_CH
dc.language.isoende_CH
dc.publisherElsevierde_CH
dc.relation.ispartofGlobal Environmental Changede_CH
dc.rightsLicence according to publishing contractde_CH
dc.subjectPrediction marketsde_CH
dc.subjectInformation marketsde_CH
dc.subjectUnited Nations Framwork convention on climate changede_CH
dc.subjectCopenhagen climate summitde_CH
dc.subject.ddc003: Systemede_CH
dc.subject.ddc363: Umwelt- und Sicherheitsproblemede_CH
dc.titleDesigning prediction markets for international negotiations : lessons learnt from the climate summit in Copenhagende_CH
dc.typeBeitrag in wissenschaftlicher Zeitschriftde_CH
dcterms.typeTextde_CH
zhaw.departementSchool of Management and Lawde_CH
zhaw.organisationalunitZentrum für Energie und Umwelt (CEE)de_CH
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.04.007de_CH
zhaw.funding.euNode_CH
zhaw.originated.zhawYesde_CH
zhaw.pages.end119de_CH
zhaw.pages.start106de_CH
zhaw.publication.statuspublishedVersionde_CH
zhaw.volume27de_CH
zhaw.publication.reviewPeer review (Publikation)de_CH
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Betz, R., Cludius, J., & Twomey, P. (2014). Designing prediction markets for international negotiations : lessons learnt from the climate summit in Copenhagen. Global Environmental Change, 27, 106–119. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.04.007
Betz, R., Cludius, J. and Twomey, P. (2014) ‘Designing prediction markets for international negotiations : lessons learnt from the climate summit in Copenhagen’, Global Environmental Change, 27, pp. 106–119. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.04.007.
R. Betz, J. Cludius, and P. Twomey, “Designing prediction markets for international negotiations : lessons learnt from the climate summit in Copenhagen,” Global Environmental Change, vol. 27, pp. 106–119, 2014, doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.04.007.
BETZ, Regina, Johanna CLUDIUS und Paul TWOMEY, 2014. Designing prediction markets for international negotiations : lessons learnt from the climate summit in Copenhagen. Global Environmental Change. 2014. Bd. 27, S. 106–119. DOI 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.04.007
Betz, Regina, Johanna Cludius, and Paul Twomey. 2014. “Designing Prediction Markets for International Negotiations : Lessons Learnt from the Climate Summit in Copenhagen.” Global Environmental Change 27: 106–19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.04.007.
Betz, Regina, et al. “Designing Prediction Markets for International Negotiations : Lessons Learnt from the Climate Summit in Copenhagen.” Global Environmental Change, vol. 27, 2014, pp. 106–19, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.04.007.


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