| Publication type: | Article in scientific journal |
| Type of review: | Peer review (publication) |
| Title: | A probabilistic approach to the computation of the levelized cost of electricity |
| Authors: | Geissmann, Thomas Ponta, Oriana |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.energy.2017.02.078 |
| Published in: | Energy |
| Volume(Issue): | 124 |
| Page(s): | 372 |
| Pages to: | 381 |
| Issue Date: | 17-Feb-2017 |
| Publisher / Ed. Institution: | Elsevier |
| ISSN: | 0360-5442 |
| Language: | English |
| Subjects: | Invesstment analysis; Levelized cost of electricity; Monte Carlo simulation; Nuclear gas and power; Uncertainty |
| Subject (DDC): | 333.79: Energy |
| Abstract: | This paper sets forth a novel approach to calculate the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) using a probabilistic model that accounts for endogenous input parameters. The approach is applied to the example of a nuclear and gas power project. Monte Carlo simulation results show that a correlation between input parameters has a significant effect on the model outcome. By controlling for endogeneity, a statistically significant difference in the mean LCOE estimate and a change in the order of input leverages is observed. Moreover, the paper discusses the role of discounting options and external costs in detail. In contrast to the gas power project, the economic viability of the nuclear project is considerably weaker. |
| URI: | https://digitalcollection.zhaw.ch/handle/11475/17392 |
| Fulltext version: | Published version |
| License (according to publishing contract): | Licence according to publishing contract |
| Departement: | School of Management and Law |
| Appears in collections: | Publikationen School of Management and Law |
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Geissmann, T., & Ponta, O. (2017). A probabilistic approach to the computation of the levelized cost of electricity. Energy, 124, 372–381. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2017.02.078
Geissmann, T. and Ponta, O. (2017) ‘A probabilistic approach to the computation of the levelized cost of electricity’, Energy, 124, pp. 372–381. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2017.02.078.
T. Geissmann and O. Ponta, “A probabilistic approach to the computation of the levelized cost of electricity,” Energy, vol. 124, pp. 372–381, Feb. 2017, doi: 10.1016/j.energy.2017.02.078.
GEISSMANN, Thomas und Oriana PONTA, 2017. A probabilistic approach to the computation of the levelized cost of electricity. Energy. 17 Februar 2017. Bd. 124, S. 372–381. DOI 10.1016/j.energy.2017.02.078
Geissmann, Thomas, and Oriana Ponta. 2017. “A Probabilistic Approach to the Computation of the Levelized Cost of Electricity.” Energy 124 (February): 372–81. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2017.02.078.
Geissmann, Thomas, and Oriana Ponta. “A Probabilistic Approach to the Computation of the Levelized Cost of Electricity.” Energy, vol. 124, Feb. 2017, pp. 372–81, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2017.02.078.
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