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dc.contributor.authorWalz, A.-
dc.contributor.authorBrändle, J.M.-
dc.contributor.authorLang, D.J.-
dc.contributor.authorBrand, Fridolin S.-
dc.contributor.authorBriner, S.-
dc.contributor.authorElkin, C.-
dc.contributor.authorHirschi, C.-
dc.contributor.authorHuber, R.-
dc.contributor.authorLischke, H.-
dc.contributor.authorSchmatz, D.R-
dc.date.accessioned2019-07-22T14:49:07Z-
dc.date.available2019-07-22T14:49:07Z-
dc.date.issued2014-07-01-
dc.identifier.issn0040-1625de_CH
dc.identifier.issn1873-5509de_CH
dc.identifier.urihttps://digitalcollection.zhaw.ch/handle/11475/17644-
dc.description.abstractScenario analysis is a widely used approach to incorporate uncertainties in global change research. In the context of regional ecosystem service and landscape management where global IPCC climate simulations and their downscaled derivates are applied, it can be useful to work with regional socio-economic scenarios that are coherent with the global IPCC scenarios. The consistency with the original source scenarios, transparency and reproducibility of the methods used as well as the internal consistency of the derived scenarios are important methodological prerequisites for coherently downscaling pre-existing source scenarios. In contrast to well-established systematic-qualitative scenario techniques, we employ here a formal technique of scenario construction which combines expert judgement with a quantitative, indicator-based selection algorithm in order to deduce a formally consistent set of focus scenario. In our case study, these focus scenarios reflect the potential development pathways of major national-level drivers for ecosystem service management in Swiss mountain regions. The integration of an extra impact factor (“Global Trends”) directly referring to the four principle SRES scenario families, helped us to formally internalise base assumptions of IPCC SRES scenarios to regional scenarios that address a different thematic focus (ecosystem service management), spatial level (national) and time horizon (2050). Compared to the well-established systematic-qualitative approach, we find strong similarities between the two methods, including the susceptibility to personal judgement which is only partly reduced by the formal method. However, the formalised scenario approach conveys four clear advantages, (1) the better documentation of the process, (2) its reproducibility, (3) the openness in terms of the number and directions of the finally selected set of scenarios, and (4) its analytical power.de_CH
dc.language.isoende_CH
dc.publisherElsevierde_CH
dc.relation.ispartofTechnological Forecasting and Social Changede_CH
dc.rightsLicence according to publishing contractde_CH
dc.subjectDownscaling socio-economic scenariode_CH
dc.subjectFormalised scenario analysisde_CH
dc.subjectIPCCde_CH
dc.subjectNested scenariode_CH
dc.subjectRegional ecosystem service managementde_CH
dc.subject.ddc363: Umwelt- und Sicherheitsproblemede_CH
dc.titleExperience from downscaling IPCC-SRES scenarios to specific national-level focus scenarios for ecosystem service managementde_CH
dc.typeBeitrag in wissenschaftlicher Zeitschriftde_CH
dcterms.typeTextde_CH
zhaw.departementSchool of Management and Lawde_CH
zhaw.organisationalunitInternational Management Institute (IMI)de_CH
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.techfore.2013.08.014de_CH
zhaw.funding.euNode_CH
zhaw.originated.zhawYesde_CH
zhaw.pages.end32de_CH
zhaw.pages.start21de_CH
zhaw.publication.statuspublishedVersionde_CH
zhaw.volume86de_CH
zhaw.publication.reviewPeer review (Publikation)de_CH
zhaw.author.additionalNode_CH
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Walz, A., Brändle, J. M., Lang, D. J., Brand, F. S., Briner, S., Elkin, C., Hirschi, C., Huber, R., Lischke, H., & Schmatz, D. R. (2014). Experience from downscaling IPCC-SRES scenarios to specific national-level focus scenarios for ecosystem service management. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 86, 21–32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.08.014
Walz, A. et al. (2014) ‘Experience from downscaling IPCC-SRES scenarios to specific national-level focus scenarios for ecosystem service management’, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 86, pp. 21–32. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.08.014.
A. Walz et al., “Experience from downscaling IPCC-SRES scenarios to specific national-level focus scenarios for ecosystem service management,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 86, pp. 21–32, Jul. 2014, doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.08.014.
WALZ, A., J.M. BRÄNDLE, D.J. LANG, Fridolin S. BRAND, S. BRINER, C. ELKIN, C. HIRSCHI, R. HUBER, H. LISCHKE und D.R SCHMATZ, 2014. Experience from downscaling IPCC-SRES scenarios to specific national-level focus scenarios for ecosystem service management. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 1 Juli 2014. Bd. 86, S. 21–32. DOI 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.08.014
Walz, A., J.M. Brändle, D.J. Lang, Fridolin S. Brand, S. Briner, C. Elkin, C. Hirschi, R. Huber, H. Lischke, and D.R Schmatz. 2014. “Experience from Downscaling IPCC-SRES Scenarios to Specific National-Level Focus Scenarios for Ecosystem Service Management.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 86 (July): 21–32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.08.014.
Walz, A., et al. “Experience from Downscaling IPCC-SRES Scenarios to Specific National-Level Focus Scenarios for Ecosystem Service Management.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 86, July 2014, pp. 21–32, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.08.014.


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