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Publication type: Article in scientific journal
Type of review: Peer review (publication)
Title: Sentiment analysis of European bonds 2016 - 2018
Authors: Schwendner, Peter
Schüle, Martin
Hillebrand, Martin
et. al: No
DOI: 10.3389/frai.2019.00020
Published in: Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence
Volume(Issue): 2
Issue: 20
Issue Date: 2019
Publisher / Ed. Institution: Frontiers Research Foundation
ISSN: 2624-8212
Language: English
Subjects: Sovereign bond; Contagion; Sentiment; European sovereign bond crisis; Correlation influence; Correlation; Network
Subject (DDC): 332.6: Investment
Abstract: We revisit the discussion of market sentiment in European sovereign bonds using a correlation analysis toolkit based on influence networks and hierarchical clustering. We focus on three case studies of political interest. In the case of the 2016 Brexit referendum, the market showed negative correlations between core and periphery only in the week before the referendum. Before the French presidential elections in 2017, the French bond spread widened together with the estimated Le Pen election probability, but the position of French bonds in the correlation blocks did not weaken. In summer 2018, during the budget negotiations within the new Italian coalition, the Italian bonds reacted very sensitively to changing political messages but did not show contagion risk to Spain or Portugal for several months. The situation changed during the week from October 22 to 26, as a spillover pattern of negative sentiment also to the other peripheral countries emerged.
Fulltext version: Published version
License (according to publishing contract): CC BY 4.0: Attribution 4.0 International
Departement: Life Sciences and Facility Management
School of Management and Law
Organisational Unit: Institute of Computational Life Sciences (ICLS)
Institute of Wealth & Asset Management (IWA)
Appears in collections:Publikationen Life Sciences und Facility Management

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