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dc.contributor.authorBellert, Nicole-
dc.date.accessioned2021-08-26T10:19:01Z-
dc.date.available2021-08-26T10:19:01Z-
dc.date.issued2021-
dc.identifier.urihttps://digitalcollection.zhaw.ch/handle/11475/23001-
dc.description.abstractDark rate estimation of (illegal) conduct is inherently estimating population sizes of unknown populations. We reversely engineer prediction of the collusive population in an economy from a non-randomly sampled set of observed cases. If conducted successfully, our method applies in various situations where the population size is in doubt. We start by simulating collusive behaviour as well as properties of law enforcement mechanisms to show that conventional methods estimating the population of undetected cartels do not provide true population sizes. Second, we aim to identify suspected sample selection biases in the detection of collusive industries; (i) industries being prone to collusion and (ii) industries being prone to detection. Incorporating strategic firm and competition policy agency behaviour (i.e. the fact that various cartels happen to be detected, dissolve, form again, and get detected again (repeat offenders), and external shocks like the introduction of leniency (e.g. 1978 in the US, 1997 in the EU)), we build a framework to estimate cartel activity over time. On the simulated as well as real data (EC DGCompetition) we test our new framework in terms of predictive power as we understand the data generating process.de_CH
dc.language.isoende_CH
dc.rightsLicence according to publishing contractde_CH
dc.subject.ddc330: Wirtschaftde_CH
dc.titleSimulating and estimating dark rates in collusionde_CH
dc.typeKonferenz: Sonstigesde_CH
dcterms.typeTextde_CH
zhaw.departementSchool of Management and Lawde_CH
zhaw.organisationalunitInstitut für Wealth & Asset Management (IWA)de_CH
zhaw.conference.detailsResearch Seminar Spring 2021, University of Zurich, 17 May 2021de_CH
zhaw.funding.euNode_CH
zhaw.originated.zhawYesde_CH
zhaw.publication.statuspublishedVersionde_CH
zhaw.publication.reviewKeine Begutachtungde_CH
zhaw.author.additionalNode_CH
zhaw.display.portraitYesde_CH
Appears in collections:Publikationen School of Management and Law

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Bellert, N. (2021). Simulating and estimating dark rates in collusion. Research Seminar Spring 2021, University of Zurich, 17 May 2021.
Bellert, N. (2021) ‘Simulating and estimating dark rates in collusion’, in Research Seminar Spring 2021, University of Zurich, 17 May 2021.
N. Bellert, “Simulating and estimating dark rates in collusion,” in Research Seminar Spring 2021, University of Zurich, 17 May 2021, 2021.
BELLERT, Nicole, 2021. Simulating and estimating dark rates in collusion. In: Research Seminar Spring 2021, University of Zurich, 17 May 2021. Conference presentation. 2021
Bellert, Nicole. 2021. “Simulating and Estimating Dark Rates in Collusion.” Conference presentation. In Research Seminar Spring 2021, University of Zurich, 17 May 2021.
Bellert, Nicole. “Simulating and Estimating Dark Rates in Collusion.” Research Seminar Spring 2021, University of Zurich, 17 May 2021, 2021.


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