Monetary regimes, the term structure and business cycles in Ireland, 1972–2018

Stuart, Rebecca

doi:10.1111/manc.12322

Publication type:	Article in scientific journal
Type of review:	Peer review (publication)
Title:	Monetary regimes, the term structure and business cycles in Ireland, 1972–2018
Authors:	Stuart, Rebecca
et. al:	No
DOI:	10.1111/manc.12322
Published in:	The Manchester School
Volume(Issue):	88
Issue:	5
Page(s):	731
Pages to:	748
Issue Date:	14-Jun-2020
Publisher / Ed. Institution:	Wiley
ISSN:	1463-6786 1467-9957
Language:	English
Subject (DDC):	332: Financial economics
Abstract:	The literature emphasizes the role of monetary policy for the term structure's ability to predict business cycles. Between 1972 and 2018, Ireland experienced three monetary regimes: first, the Irish Pound was fixed to Sterling (1972–1979); second the Pound floated in a band when Ireland was a member of EMS (1979–1998); and third, as a member of the euro area (1999–2018). Using dynamic probit models and monthly data, I show that the term spread only had predictive power during the second regime, the only one in which the Central Bank of Ireland had discretion to set interest rates based on the domestic conditions.
URI:	https://digitalcollection.zhaw.ch/handle/11475/29720
Fulltext version:	Published version
License (according to publishing contract):	Licence according to publishing contract
Departement:	School of Management and Law
Appears in collections:	Publikationen School of Management and Law

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Stuart, R. (2020). Monetary regimes, the term structure and business cycles in Ireland, 1972–2018. The Manchester School, 88(5), 731–748. https://doi.org/10.1111/manc.12322

Stuart, R. (2020) ‘Monetary regimes, the term structure and business cycles in Ireland, 1972–2018’, The Manchester School, 88(5), pp. 731–748. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1111/manc.12322.

R. Stuart, “Monetary regimes, the term structure and business cycles in Ireland, 1972–2018,” The Manchester School, vol. 88, no. 5, pp. 731–748, Jun. 2020, doi: 10.1111/manc.12322.

STUART, Rebecca, 2020. Monetary regimes, the term structure and business cycles in Ireland, 1972–2018. The Manchester School. 14 Juni 2020. Bd. 88, Nr. 5, S. 731–748. DOI 10.1111/manc.12322

Stuart, Rebecca. 2020. “Monetary Regimes, the Term Structure and Business Cycles in Ireland, 1972–2018.” The Manchester School 88 (5): 731–48. https://doi.org/10.1111/manc.12322.

Stuart, Rebecca. “Monetary Regimes, the Term Structure and Business Cycles in Ireland, 1972–2018.” The Manchester School, vol. 88, no. 5, June 2020, pp. 731–48, https://doi.org/10.1111/manc.12322.