| Publication type: | Conference paper |
| Type of review: | Peer review (publication) |
| Title: | Simulating collusion : challenging conventional estimation methods |
| Authors: | Bellert, Nicole Günster, Andrea Maria Kozbur, Damian |
| et. al: | No |
| Conference details: | 17th International Conference on Competition and Regulation (CRESSE), Ixia, Greece, 30 June - 2 July 2023 |
| Issue Date: | 2-Jul-2023 |
| Publisher / Ed. Institution: | Competition & Regulation European Summer School and Conference |
| Language: | English |
| Subject (DDC): | 338: Production |
| Abstract: | The literature on estimating dark rates of collusion relies on hazard rate and capture-recapture models to estimate and explain the duration of collusive populations from detected offenses (sample). The detected cartels are non random samples of their populations. Hence, this study addresses the question of whether conventional methods derive consistent unbiased estimators for dark rates and variables explaining duration of collusion. We simulate collusive behavior of industries with different number of firms based on three classical models of collusion (Stigler [1964], Harrington and Chang [2009] and Bos et al. [2018]), additionally varying five variables of antitrust enforcement. The simulation provides a ground-truth data set of undetected and detected cartels; a population and its sample. Applying hazard rate and capture recapture estimation on the sample leads to a good prediction of the true probability of getting caught for the sample. However, it fails to predict the probability of being caught for the population; the estimates do not come close to the true probability of being caught. |
| URI: | https://www.cresse.info/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/2023_ps12_pa4_Bellert.pdf https://digitalcollection.zhaw.ch/handle/11475/30547 |
| Fulltext version: | Published version |
| License (according to publishing contract): | Licence according to publishing contract |
| Departement: | School of Management and Law |
| Organisational Unit: | Institute of Business Information Technology (IWI) |
| Appears in collections: | Publikationen School of Management and Law |
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Bellert, N., Günster, A. M., & Kozbur, D. (2023, July 2). Simulating collusion : challenging conventional estimation methods. 17th International Conference on Competition and Regulation (CRESSE), Ixia, Greece, 30 June - 2 July 2023. https://www.cresse.info/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/2023_ps12_pa4_Bellert.pdf
Bellert, N., Günster, A.M. and Kozbur, D. (2023) ‘Simulating collusion : challenging conventional estimation methods’, in 17th International Conference on Competition and Regulation (CRESSE), Ixia, Greece, 30 June - 2 July 2023. Competition & Regulation European Summer School and Conference. Available at: https://www.cresse.info/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/2023_ps12_pa4_Bellert.pdf.
N. Bellert, A. M. Günster, and D. Kozbur, “Simulating collusion : challenging conventional estimation methods,” in 17th International Conference on Competition and Regulation (CRESSE), Ixia, Greece, 30 June - 2 July 2023, Jul. 2023. [Online]. Available: https://www.cresse.info/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/2023_ps12_pa4_Bellert.pdf
BELLERT, Nicole, Andrea Maria GÜNSTER und Damian KOZBUR, 2023. Simulating collusion : challenging conventional estimation methods. In: 17th International Conference on Competition and Regulation (CRESSE), Ixia, Greece, 30 June - 2 July 2023 [online]. Conference paper. Competition & Regulation European Summer School and Conference. 2 Juli 2023. Verfügbar unter: https://www.cresse.info/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/2023_ps12_pa4_Bellert.pdf
Bellert, Nicole, Andrea Maria Günster, and Damian Kozbur. 2023. “Simulating Collusion : Challenging Conventional Estimation Methods.” Conference paper. In 17th International Conference on Competition and Regulation (CRESSE), Ixia, Greece, 30 June - 2 July 2023. Competition & Regulation European Summer School and Conference. https://www.cresse.info/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/2023_ps12_pa4_Bellert.pdf.
Bellert, Nicole, et al. “Simulating Collusion : Challenging Conventional Estimation Methods.” 17th International Conference on Competition and Regulation (CRESSE), Ixia, Greece, 30 June - 2 July 2023, Competition & Regulation European Summer School and Conference, 2023, https://www.cresse.info/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/2023_ps12_pa4_Bellert.pdf.
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