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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://doi.org/10.21256/zhaw-24475
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dc.contributor.authorMignan, Arnaud-
dc.contributor.authorSpada, Matteo-
dc.contributor.authorBurgherr, Peter-
dc.contributor.authorWang, Ziqi-
dc.contributor.authorSornette, Didier-
dc.date.accessioned2022-03-04T13:22:44Z-
dc.date.available2022-03-04T13:22:44Z-
dc.date.issued2022-
dc.identifier.issn1932-6203de_CH
dc.identifier.urihttps://digitalcollection.zhaw.ch/handle/11475/24475-
dc.description.abstractOrganized into a global network of critical infrastructures, the oil & gas industry remains to this day the main energy contributor to the world's economy. Severe accidents occasionally occur resulting in fatalities and disruption. We build an oil & gas accident graph based on more than a thousand severe accidents for the period 1970-2016 recorded for refineries, tankers, and gas networks in the authoritative ENergy-related Severe Accident Database (ENSAD). We explore the distribution of potential chains-of-events leading to severe accidents by combining graph theory, Markov analysis and catastrophe dynamics. Using centrality measures, we first verify that human error is consistently the main source of accidents and that explosion, fire, toxic release, and element rupture are the principal sinks, but also the main catalysts for accident amplification. Second, we quantify the space of possible chains-of-events using the concept of fundamental matrix and rank them by defining a likelihood-based importance measure γ. We find that chains of up to five events can play a significant role in severe accidents, consisting of feedback loops of the aforementioned events but also of secondary events not directly identifiable from graph topology and yet participating in the most likely chains-of-events.de_CH
dc.language.isoende_CH
dc.publisherPublic Library of Sciencede_CH
dc.relation.ispartofPLOS ONEde_CH
dc.rightshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/de_CH
dc.subject.ddc363: Umwelt- und Sicherheitsproblemede_CH
dc.titleDynamics of severe accidents in the oil & gas energy sector derived from the authoritative ENergy-related severe accident databasede_CH
dc.typeBeitrag in wissenschaftlicher Zeitschriftde_CH
dcterms.typeTextde_CH
zhaw.departementSchool of Engineeringde_CH
zhaw.organisationalunitInstitut für Nachhaltige Entwicklung (INE)de_CH
dc.identifier.doi10.1371/journal.pone.0263962de_CH
dc.identifier.doi10.21256/zhaw-24475-
dc.identifier.pmid35176103de_CH
zhaw.funding.euNode_CH
zhaw.issue2de_CH
zhaw.originated.zhawYesde_CH
zhaw.pages.starte0263962de_CH
zhaw.publication.statuspublishedVersionde_CH
zhaw.volume17de_CH
zhaw.publication.reviewPeer review (Publikation)de_CH
zhaw.webfeedZHAW digitalde_CH
zhaw.author.additionalNode_CH
zhaw.display.portraitYesde_CH
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Mignan, A., Spada, M., Burgherr, P., Wang, Z., & Sornette, D. (2022). Dynamics of severe accidents in the oil & gas energy sector derived from the authoritative ENergy-related severe accident database. Plos One, 17(2), e0263962. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0263962
Mignan, A. et al. (2022) ‘Dynamics of severe accidents in the oil & gas energy sector derived from the authoritative ENergy-related severe accident database’, PLOS ONE, 17(2), p. e0263962. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0263962.
A. Mignan, M. Spada, P. Burgherr, Z. Wang, and D. Sornette, “Dynamics of severe accidents in the oil & gas energy sector derived from the authoritative ENergy-related severe accident database,” PLOS ONE, vol. 17, no. 2, p. e0263962, 2022, doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0263962.
MIGNAN, Arnaud, Matteo SPADA, Peter BURGHERR, Ziqi WANG und Didier SORNETTE, 2022. Dynamics of severe accidents in the oil & gas energy sector derived from the authoritative ENergy-related severe accident database. PLOS ONE. 2022. Bd. 17, Nr. 2, S. e0263962. DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0263962
Mignan, Arnaud, Matteo Spada, Peter Burgherr, Ziqi Wang, and Didier Sornette. 2022. “Dynamics of Severe Accidents in the Oil & Gas Energy Sector Derived from the Authoritative ENergy-Related Severe Accident Database.” Plos One 17 (2): e0263962. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0263962.
Mignan, Arnaud, et al. “Dynamics of Severe Accidents in the Oil & Gas Energy Sector Derived from the Authoritative ENergy-Related Severe Accident Database.” Plos One, vol. 17, no. 2, 2022, p. e0263962, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0263962.


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