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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://doi.org/10.21256/zhaw-28498
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dc.contributor.authorRenold, Manuel-
dc.contributor.authorVollenweider, Janik-
dc.contributor.authorMijović, Nemanja-
dc.contributor.authorKuljanin, Jovana-
dc.contributor.authorKalić, Milica-
dc.date.accessioned2023-08-28T12:52:48Z-
dc.date.available2023-08-28T12:52:48Z-
dc.date.issued2023-
dc.identifier.issn0969-6997de_CH
dc.identifier.issn1873-2089de_CH
dc.identifier.urihttps://digitalcollection.zhaw.ch/handle/11475/28498-
dc.description.abstractThis paper combines the k-means clustering method in combination with PCA and the system dynamic modeling approach to derive a better insight into the behavior of airline profitability during the time span of 1995 until 2020. The model includes various explanatory variables that capture different aspects of airline economic and operational metrics, whose fluctuations may affect the airline profitability. By forecasting these exogenous variables, the system dynamic model is used to predict airline profitability through 2025 and answer the question of whether the US airline industry will return to its pre-COVID 19 pandemic state. The latter research question can be agreed with, as the effect of introducing a fourth dimension derived from Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to sufficiently cover the variation within the dataset during the years of COVID-19 pandemic diminishes towards the end of the forecast period. Furthermore, the key measures from PCA imply that under the assumption of continuous growth and a non-exogenous shock, future years will not cluster in past years. The six different clusters from 2019 to 2025 showed how the system stays in a certain state for a few years and then drifts further to a new state. There are only a few variables that change to transfer from one cluster to the next.de_CH
dc.language.isoende_CH
dc.publisherElsevierde_CH
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of Air Transport Managementde_CH
dc.rightshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/de_CH
dc.subjectk-means clusteringde_CH
dc.subjectAirline profitability cyclede_CH
dc.subjectOperating profit predictionde_CH
dc.subjectSystem dynamic modellingde_CH
dc.subjectPrincipal component analysisde_CH
dc.subject.ddc380: Verkehrde_CH
dc.titleMethodological framework for a deeper understanding of airline profit cycles in the context of disruptive exogenous impactsde_CH
dc.typeBeitrag in wissenschaftlicher Zeitschriftde_CH
dcterms.typeTextde_CH
zhaw.departementSchool of Engineeringde_CH
zhaw.organisationalunitInstitut für Datenanalyse und Prozessdesign (IDP)de_CH
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.jairtraman.2022.102305de_CH
dc.identifier.doi10.21256/zhaw-28498-
zhaw.funding.euNode_CH
zhaw.issue102305de_CH
zhaw.originated.zhawYesde_CH
zhaw.publication.statuspublishedVersionde_CH
zhaw.volume106de_CH
zhaw.publication.reviewPeer review (Publikation)de_CH
zhaw.webfeedTransport und Mobilitätde_CH
zhaw.webfeedCybernetic Learning Systemsde_CH
zhaw.author.additionalNode_CH
zhaw.display.portraitYesde_CH
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Renold, M., Vollenweider, J., Mijović, N., Kuljanin, J., & Kalić, M. (2023). Methodological framework for a deeper understanding of airline profit cycles in the context of disruptive exogenous impacts. Journal of Air Transport Management, 106(102305). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2022.102305
Renold, M. et al. (2023) ‘Methodological framework for a deeper understanding of airline profit cycles in the context of disruptive exogenous impacts’, Journal of Air Transport Management, 106(102305). Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2022.102305.
M. Renold, J. Vollenweider, N. Mijović, J. Kuljanin, and M. Kalić, “Methodological framework for a deeper understanding of airline profit cycles in the context of disruptive exogenous impacts,” Journal of Air Transport Management, vol. 106, no. 102305, 2023, doi: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2022.102305.
RENOLD, Manuel, Janik VOLLENWEIDER, Nemanja MIJOVIĆ, Jovana KULJANIN und Milica KALIĆ, 2023. Methodological framework for a deeper understanding of airline profit cycles in the context of disruptive exogenous impacts. Journal of Air Transport Management. 2023. Bd. 106, Nr. 102305. DOI 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2022.102305
Renold, Manuel, Janik Vollenweider, Nemanja Mijović, Jovana Kuljanin, and Milica Kalić. 2023. “Methodological Framework for a Deeper Understanding of Airline Profit Cycles in the Context of Disruptive Exogenous Impacts.” Journal of Air Transport Management 106 (102305). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2022.102305.
Renold, Manuel, et al. “Methodological Framework for a Deeper Understanding of Airline Profit Cycles in the Context of Disruptive Exogenous Impacts.” Journal of Air Transport Management, vol. 106, no. 102305, 2023, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2022.102305.


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