Collision risk assessment in terminal manoeuvring areas based on trajectory generation methods

Krauth, Timothé; Figuet, Benoit; Olive, Xaviet; Morio, Jérôme

doi:10.21256/zhaw-28805

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://doi.org/10.21256/zhaw-28805

Publication type:	Conference paper
Type of review:	Peer review (publication)
Title:	Collision risk assessment in terminal manoeuvring areas based on trajectory generation methods
Authors:	Krauth, Timothé Figuet, Benoit Olive, Xaviet Morio, Jérôme
et. al:	No
DOI:	10.21256/zhaw-28805
Conference details:	15th Air Traffic Management Research and Development Seminar, Savannah, USA, 5-9 June 2023
Issue Date:	6-Jun-2023
Publisher / Ed. Institution:	ATM Seminar
Language:	English
Subjects:	Air traffic management; Collisiosn risk assessment; Monte Carlo simulation; Trajectory generation; Deep generative modelling
Subject (DDC):	380: Transportation 510: Mathematics
Abstract:	Collision risk models are the mainstay of collision avoidance studies. We address here methods based on Monte Carlo simulations to estimate collision risk probabilities. As observations of real trajectories are not enough to estimate probabilities of losses of separation, which are rare events, generated synthetic trajectories address this limitation. In this paper, we build upon a recently published data-based statistical trajectory generation method based on Variational Autoencoders and estimate the risk of mid-air collision between arriving aircraft that are in the downwind and departing aircraft that are climbing-out in a southerly direction at Paris–Orly airport. We compute the probabilities of losses of separation and discuss the difference by an order of magnitude that we found in the results, depending on the runway configuration in place.
URI:	https://digitalcollection.zhaw.ch/handle/11475/28805
Fulltext version:	Published version
License (according to publishing contract):	Licence according to publishing contract
Departement:	School of Engineering
Organisational Unit:	Centre for Aviation (ZAV)
Appears in collections:	Publikationen School of Engineering

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Krauth, T., Figuet, B., Olive, X., & Morio, J. (2023, June 6). Collision risk assessment in terminal manoeuvring areas based on trajectory generation methods. 15th Air Traffic Management Research and Development Seminar, Savannah, USA, 5-9 June 2023. https://doi.org/10.21256/zhaw-28805

Krauth, T. et al. (2023) ‘Collision risk assessment in terminal manoeuvring areas based on trajectory generation methods’, in 15th Air Traffic Management Research and Development Seminar, Savannah, USA, 5-9 June 2023. ATM Seminar. Available at: https://doi.org/10.21256/zhaw-28805.

T. Krauth, B. Figuet, X. Olive, and J. Morio, “Collision risk assessment in terminal manoeuvring areas based on trajectory generation methods,” in 15th Air Traffic Management Research and Development Seminar, Savannah, USA, 5-9 June 2023, Jun. 2023. doi: 10.21256/zhaw-28805.

KRAUTH, Timothé, Benoit FIGUET, Xaviet OLIVE und Jérôme MORIO, 2023. Collision risk assessment in terminal manoeuvring areas based on trajectory generation methods. In: 15th Air Traffic Management Research and Development Seminar, Savannah, USA, 5-9 June 2023. Conference paper. ATM Seminar. 6 Juni 2023

Krauth, Timothé, Benoit Figuet, Xaviet Olive, and Jérôme Morio. 2023. “Collision Risk Assessment in Terminal Manoeuvring Areas Based on Trajectory Generation Methods.” Conference paper. In 15th Air Traffic Management Research and Development Seminar, Savannah, USA, 5-9 June 2023. ATM Seminar. https://doi.org/10.21256/zhaw-28805.

Krauth, Timothé, et al. “Collision Risk Assessment in Terminal Manoeuvring Areas Based on Trajectory Generation Methods.” 15th Air Traffic Management Research and Development Seminar, Savannah, USA, 5-9 June 2023, ATM Seminar, 2023, https://doi.org/10.21256/zhaw-28805.